Recently, the extreme conditions of the commodity market have continued, and many investors have suffered heavy losses. It is worth noting that there are a number of domestic investors who participate in overseas markets through various channels. Due to their high leverage and lack of effective monitoring channels, these investors are often more vulnerable to losses in market fluctuations. According to market analysts, the large fluctuations in the global commodity market will continue. Investors need to further increase their risk awareness. At the same time, the domestic futures industry has also stepped up risk control management to promote investors and the industry to overcome difficulties.
In recent days, while global eyes have been attracted by news of the meltdown of stock markets in various countries, the commodity market has also quietly set off a bloody storm, and many investors have suffered heavy losses. Wang Ming studied in the United States to study finance, and was exposed to gold trading during school, and has always maintained the habit of trading after returning home. China Securities Journal learned through interviews that from the beginning of 2019, Wang Ming has been holding long positions in gold. The price of gold in London has risen from around $ 1100 / ounce to a maximum of $ 1,700 / ounce, and Wang Ming's earnings have been rising.
But the good times didn't last long. On March 9, the European and American stock markets fell sharply, and gold also trembled. The maximum amplitude of the day was close to $ 50 / ounce. The next day, gold continued to fall, and London gold fell 1.83% that day. After that, for four days, the gold market was a "big Yin line" every day. In the process, Wang Ming continued to increase positions, liquidate positions, increase margins, and continue to liquidate positions. As of March 13, Wang Ming had lost all of the gains in 2019 and folded into 300,000 during the margin increase process. The US dollar had to concede and leave.
的 A money game with more than a hundred times leverage, once it fails, it is difficult to retreat. "For overseas spot gold markets, leverage is at least 100 times, and even 1000 times leverage is not uncommon," said Xiong Yanbo, chief quantitative analyst at Wuhan New World Jewelry Company Talent Research Institute, and told China Securities Journal that Wang Ming is very likely. Participating in this type of market, this type of transaction is often regarded by industry practitioners as a knife-tip licking blood. If the mentality is not controlled in extreme markets, major losses are likely to occur.
A market person close to regulation also told the China Securities Journal that foreign investment has always been a high-risk area. On the one hand, overseas investment channels are complex and diverse, and the risk factors of many investment varieties are much higher than domestic ones, making it difficult for investors to know exactly. At the same time, due to the inadequacy of domestic supervision, investors cannot protect their rights and interests through legal and effective channels if losses occur. He introduced that at present global regulatory agencies have higher requirements for cross-border investors. For example, overseas investors want to invest in the Chinese market. Normally, they can only participate through limited channels recognized by overseas regulators.
“I hope investors still invest through legal and formal channels. Even if they have investment accounts in some formal channels overseas, they must learn more about rules and strictly control risks.” The above market participants said.
Commodity ups and downs continue
Affected by the new crown epidemic and the plunge in the international crude oil market, the prices of domestic crude oil, energy, precious metals, metals and other product futures fell sharply or in turn, and some futures contracts experienced continuous limitless declines and a risk situation that had not been seen for many years. In some futures contracts, the decline is much greater than the margin level. Some customers have full positions or the margin is not added in a timely manner. The closing order and the futures company's strong liquidation order cannot be closed after the word limit is reached. As a result, investment risks have increased significantly. CCB Futures believes that there is still a possibility of huge fluctuations in subsequent international futures varieties, and domestic futures investment may generate new risks.
Take the precious metal market with the most hedging effect as an example. Recently, the price of London gold has fallen below 1500 US / ounce, and the hedging function has almost been lost. Risk assets such as gold and U.S. stocks have fallen together, mainly because the liquidity of financial markets has shrunk sharply during the plunge of risk assets, and the market has been forced to sell positions to realise.
In this extreme situation, most market participants believe that macroeconomic risks continue to increase, and the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market will continue.
"It is still difficult to say the end of the risk aversion mode and the commodity is under pressure as a whole," said Cai Lili of Huatai Futures Research Institute in a research report. The risk of the global spread of the new crown epidemic is still increasing, and as crude oil prices continue to decline, and The epidemic caused pressure on the real economy may cause credit defaults and trigger financial risks. It is necessary to pay close attention to US high-yield corporate bond rates and the price fluctuations of derivatives such as CLO.
Jin Yuwei, deputy general manager of Xinxin Lake Futures Co., Ltd., said in an interview with China Securities Journal reporters that in the current market environment, investors are advised to operate rationally and not blindly chase up and down.
"Market prices will ultimately depend on fundamentals, and speculation and panic are temporary; in addition to studying market trends, investors should also pay attention to market volatility to prevent misjudgments under high volatility and lead to excessive capital losses. "Jin Yuwei said that for enterprises to maintain positions, we must pay attention to the liquidity of funds to avoid unnecessary losses caused by large market fluctuations; for trade enterprises, the core is to control exposures within a reasonable range; for For investment clients, "risk control and protection of principal" is the core of the core of the transaction.
Futures industry strengthens risk control management
Frequent extreme market conditions are a challenge for the entire industry. The futures industry is continuously strengthening risk control and working with investors to overcome difficulties. Recently, domestic commodity exchanges such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange have repeatedly maintained the market stability by increasing the trading margin ratio and adjusting the limits of daily limits. In futures companies, risk control has also become the focus of current work.
Jin Yuwei said that according to the customer's different trading background, such as hedging positions, because their positions and spot are hedged, it is recommended that customers provide sufficient margin to avoid being forced to liquidate; for speculative customers, it is recommended Control risks and operate rationally.
In addition, when the market fluctuates, some customers may touch the risk line and need to force liquidation. Xinhu Futures does not simply place pending orders based on the market price or the limit price of the daily limit. The company specializes in different types of products. Carry out price analysis and propose control ratio and price.
Jianjian Futures introduced to China Securities Journal that in order to cope with recent market fluctuations, the company increased its risk control measures. For example, pay close attention to the external disk market, the company's risk control department makes advance risk estimation and calculation of the risk level of the risk variety, and prepares a margin increase and strong risk plan for each customer. At the same time, the company and the exchange have simultaneously increased the margin rate of the variety contract, and the recent increase is 1-5 percentage points higher than the daily increase in order to reduce the transaction settlement risk of ordinary investors.
