Affected by external markets and concerns over the continued spread of the epidemic, most of the domestic commodity market closed down this week. Among them, Shanghai Bank, EB, Shanghai Tin (114450, 3670.00, 3.31%), Shanghai Copper (38910, 930.00, 2.45%) all fell by more than 10%, and asphalt (1940, 118.00, 6.48%), MEG, crude oil, PTA (3538, 64.00, 1.84%), NR, fuel oil, Shanghai Aluminum (11995, 55.00, 0.46%), rubber (8570, 215.00, 2.57%), IF, IH, cotton (10990, -270.00, -2.40%), Cotton yarns fell by more than 5%. Only apples (6570, 147.00, 2.29%), soybean meal (2817, 78.00, 2.85%), soybean oil, rapeseed meal, beans one, two beans, and silicon manganese (6352, 60.00, 0.95%) ended the week with gains The increase was less than 5%.
After a continuous downward trend, many varieties such as fuel oil, crude oil, PTA, EG, and EB have reached historical lows, and other types of varieties have also almost reached their intraday lows.
Songhuxi's plunge this week caused market attention. It is understood that this week, Shanghai Tin fell cumulatively by nearly 20%, and finally closed 12% lower than last week, ranking the forefront of the week's decline. "From a broader perspective, the continued spread of the epidemic has led to a rapid increase in newly diagnosed cases, which has caused setbacks in the capital market and commodity markets, and the collapse of the OPEC + production reduction agreement has caused the plunge of crude oil and lowered the focus of industrial costs. Consumption accounts for 15% of the world's total. If local measures cannot be taken to control it, it will have an impact on overseas tin consumption. Indonesia ’s Tianma, which accounts for nearly 20% of global supply, has also announced that it will increase production by nearly 5% this year, and supply and demand will decrease. The surplus pattern was maintained overseas, and LME inventory hit a three-year high for a time. "Said Tu Licheng, head of non-ferrous research at Jinrui Futures.
At the domestic level, Tu Licheng introduced that he has just recovered from the shadow of the epidemic. Although there is a blessing from new infrastructure orders, the actual understanding of the overall consumption structure of tin is still low, while traditional consumer orders are weak and downstream tin processing Most of the enterprises have already started construction, but due to the availability of personnel and insufficient orders, the overall operating rate is low. The number of held orders is only 30% to 40% of the normal value. The spread of overseas epidemics has also dragged down export orders.
"In general, the panic sentiment caused by the epidemic to the market has not subsided under the current oversupply pattern, and the price of tin is unlikely to improve in the short term. It is expected to remain weak, but we still need to pay attention to the positive impact of supply. Myanmar It is still a long time before the full recovery of mineral production, and the limited supply of domestic raw materials has delayed the resumption of Yinman's production. Indonesia's Tianma announced that due to the epidemic, demand has been reduced, and monthly output has been reduced by 20-30%, about 1,000-1500 tons. " Tu Licheng said.
For MEGs, which have continuously refreshed the new lows of listing, this week ’s overseas epidemic is raging, the global central bank ’s joint RRR cut and interest rate hedging policy has not played a significant role, and the overall macro market pessimism has led to a sharp decline in crude oil. It fell sharply. As of Friday, the main contract EG2005 closed at 3666 yuan / ton, down 8.4% from last week, leading the decline in the entire chemical sector.
In this regard, Liu Siqi, an analyst with Haitong Futures, said that the cost side continues to collapse, and strong supply and weak demand are accumulating. This is the core reason for the accelerated decline in ethylene glycol this week. "Affected by the global epidemic, the Federal Reserve lowered the U.S. benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points again, and the interest rate range was from 0% to 0.25%. However, this vigorous hedging policy has caused market panic. Due to concerns that the epidemic will cause global crude oil demand to shrink, crude oil continues Significantly fell, WIT crude oil once fell to the $ 20 / barrel mark on Wednesday. "Liu Siqi said.
From the perspective of production technology, the current domestic production capacity of ethylene glycol is 13.735 million tons, of which the petroleum and ethylene route accounts for more than 52%. The cost of crude oil has fallen sharply, and ethylene glycol has fallen. From the perspective of the supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol, the domestic device load at the supply side has remained high. As of the 19th, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol was 79%, of which the operating load of coal-to-ethylene glycol was 71.57%. In terms of imports, recent arrivals in Hong Kong Continuously maintained at a high level, and the downstream polyester end start-up load gradually increased, but the factory's raw material stocks remained high, port shipments continued to remain low, and ethylene glycol port inventory continued to accumulate to over 1 million tons. Before the end of this month, there are still large vessels arriving in port, and ethylene glycol is still expected to be accumulated. On the demand side, the terminal showed signs of starting, the operating rate of the texturing loom returned to 70% to 80%, the polyester operating load remained above 80%, the downstream margin improved, but the polyester inventory was on the high side, and production and sales continued to remain low. It is difficult to significantly increase the demand for ethylene glycol procurement, and the overall pressure on ethylene glycol remains high.
"For the market outlook, from a fundamental point of view, the current price of coal-to-ethylene glycol is around 3,500 yuan / ton, and the cash flow costs of some coal-to-ethylene glycol plants have fallen below. According to the information, both domestic and external demand for terminal textiles and clothing fell due to the epidemic situation. Port arrivals at ports remained high and shipments were weak. Supply-side contraction was difficult and demand recovery was slow. Ethylene glycol was still accumulating storage channels. Fundamentals were still weak. From the perspective of crude oil, the U.S. president may be involved in oil market disputes in a timely manner. Russia is also responding to prepare to contact oil prices. OPEC + may return to the negotiating table. Crude oil may rebound at the bottom. Ethylene glycol may show signs of a rebound. Or limit the increase in ethylene glycol. "Liu Siqi said.
